It is forecasted that in 2023, some of Vietnam's strong export products will face difficulties in orders. Photo: Quang Vinh.

Export highlight

In 2022, Vietnam's export miracle will become an economic bright spot. As a result, exports increased by about 10.5%, reaching about 371.5 billion USD, exceeding the target set by the National Assembly and the Government (the plan was to increase by 8%). There are 39 items with export turnover of over 1 billion USD (an increase of 4 items compared to 2021), of which 9 items achieved export turnover of over 10 billion USD (more than 1 item compared to 2021).

The structure of export goods continues to improve in a positive direction, reducing the amount of raw exports, increasing exports of processed products and industrial products, creating conditions for Vietnamese goods to participate more deeply in the chain. global production and supply. The group of processed industrial products continued to account for a major proportion in the export structure, accounting for more than 86% of total export turnover.

The trade balance continued to record a trade surplus for the 7th consecutive year with a surplus of nearly 11 billion USD, contributing positively to the balance of payments, helping to improve foreign exchange reserves, stabilize exchange rates and stabilize financial markets. other macroeconomic indicators of the economy.

According to the leadership of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the export growth result in 2022 is a bright spot in the country's economic development, demonstrating the efforts in synchronously implementing many solutions to remove difficulties and support. Enterprises (DN) and the initiative and flexibility in production organization of export enterprises seize opportunities to recover and scarcity of goods from import markets, effectively exploiting FTAs to quickly promote strong export.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Dinh Thien - former Director of the Vietnam Institute of Economics said that in 2022, Vietnam's economy will have many bright spots, especially domestic tourism, which will increase by 20% compared to the peak in 2019.

Facing many difficulties

However, many experts believe that in 2023 the economy will face many difficulties. The business community is burdened by the impact of the world economy and also the pressures from domestic activities.

Recent survey results have predicted that, when the business situation is quite difficult, the rate of profitable businesses in Vietnam compared to ASEAN as well as the whole Asia and Oceania region is relatively low. Specifically, nearly 60% of enterprises forecast to be profitable (up 5.2 points over the previous year), 20.8% of enterprises suffered a loss (down 7.8 points).

HSBC also listed a number of difficulties for the Vietnamese economy in 2023. First of all, stronger inflationary pressures. At the same time, not only did core inflation increase, Vietnam also faced a domestic energy shortage, causing inflation to rise. This means that the State Bank is likely to continue the monetary tightening cycle.

According to HSBC, the biggest risk to Vietnam's growth is increasing trade difficulties. Vietnam is not immune to the effects of the slowdown in global trade.

Weak export demand has led to a significant decline in Vietnam's exports, with November marking the first significant drop in two years. The manufacturing PMI in November also fell into a contraction for the first time in 2022. New orders, selling prices and employment all fell, showing that market sentiment is not good. Commodities benefiting from strong demand during the pandemic, electronics, and textiles/leathers, are seeing a slowdown.

Currently, the US and EU account for more than 40% of total exports. The US is also the dominant import market with a number of major export industries, more than half of Vietnam's machinery exports are to the US market. Another major export industry that also depends heavily on the demand of the US market is wood products (about 60%).

Ms. Nguyen Minh Thao - Head of the Research Department on Business Environment and National Competitiveness (Central Institute for Economic Management - CIEM) also shared: We just went to survey the situation of businesses, it is clear. Order shortage is very stressful. Many businesses have tried very hard to extend working hours to keep workers, but still have to lay off workers, including skilled workers.